Let’s Talk Temperature: How Close Are We Really to the 1.5 °C Climate Limit?

If you’ve ever felt like the global warming conversation is full of numbers that don’t quite add up, or that different reports seem to say different things, you're not alone. We all know the iconic climate targets: 1.5°C and “well below” 2°C. But here’s the million-dollar question: how are we actually measuring this? And more importantly, are we being consistent about it?

A new study by Gottfried Kirchengast and Moritz Pichler (2025) just dropped in Communications Earth & Environment, and it tackles this exact issue. Spoiler: we may be closer to busting past these temperature limits than we thought.

First Off: Why Tracking Warming Accurately Even Matters

You might think this is straightforward. Just check a thermometer, right? Not quite.

Different groups use different baselines, different time spans, and sometimes even different definitions of what “global warming” actually is. That’s like trying to measure your height in both inches and meters while standing on a moving escalator.

Kirchengast and Pichler argue that this inconsistency creates confusion especially when we're using these numbers to decide on major policy and climate actions. So they did something about it.

The Science Bit:

The researchers developed a traceable and consistent method to calculate global warming that links back clearly to the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, the one the Paris Agreement is based on.

Here’s how they approached it:

They used ECMWF’s ERA5 and NASA’s GISTEMP v4 temperature datasets—two of the most trusted global records out there.

Instead of monthly or noisy year-to-year estimates, they applied a five-year moving average to smooth out natural ups and downs (like El Niño or volcanic eruptions).

Crucially, they recalibrated these datasets so that they align properly with the Paris baseline.

The result? A much clearer and standardized “thermometer” for global warming.

So… Where Are We Right Now?

As of their latest assessment (covering up to 2023), global surface warming is at 1.26°C relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Yep, you read that right. Just 0.24°C shy of the 1.5°C goal.

And if current warming trends continue (think: fossil fuel use, deforestation, etc.), we’ll likely cross the 1.5°C line in the early 2030s.

That doesn’t mean climate action is hopeless, but it does mean the window for serious change is narrowing fast.

Why This Study Is a Big Deal

Kirchengast and Pichler’s method provides:

Clarity: Everyone can speak the same “climate temperature” language now.

Accountability: Governments can track progress (or backsliding) against the Paris goals with more precision.

Policy relevance: With a transparent and updated warming tracker, it becomes much easier to align national climate strategies with real-world data.

They even propose publishing this updated global warming number annually, just like a climate report card. Think of it as the IPCC’s smarter, snappier cousin.

Bottom Line: Know Your Climate Numbers

Climate change is too urgent and complex to leave room for fuzzy math. This paper is a wake-up call and a practical solution rolled into one. It doesn’t just tell us where we are, it helps us stay on course.

So next time you hear “we’ve got to stay below 1.5°C,” you’ll know exactly how to check whether we’re on track or how far off course we’ve drifted.

📣 Stay informed, stay loud, and let’s keep our eyes on the real numbers and stay tuned to greenblogs for more updates.

Reference

Gottfried Kirchengast, Moritz Pichler. A traceable global warming record and clarity for the 1.5 °C and well-below-2 °C goals. Communications Earth & Environment, 2025; 6 (1) DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02368-0.

Photo Credit: Meta AI

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